Equity markets this week will take cues from global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings, with TCS kick-starting the results calendar on Thursday, analysts said.
Indian IT hiring landscape is at a pivotal juncture as it transitions from a year of decline towards a more hopeful future. The focus on specialised skills, particularly in AI and data science, combined with geographical shifts towards Tier 2 cities, indicates a transformation within the sector.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, NTPC, JSW Steel, State Bank of India and Adani Ports were the other big gainers. Asian Paints, Nestle, Tech Mahindra, HCL Technologies, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys and ITC were the other big laggards.
After a robust 2023, foreign investors significantly scaled back their investments in Indian equities in 2024, with net inflows amounting to over Rs 5,000 crore, as elevated domestic valuations, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties prompted investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Looking ahead to 2025, FPI flows into Indian equities could see a recovery, supported by a cyclical upswing in corporate earnings, particularly in domestic-oriented sectors like capital goods, manufacturing, and infrastructure, Vinit Bolinjkar, head of research, Ventura Securities, said.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Adani Ports dropped over 4 per cent. UltraTech Cement, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, NTPC and Tata Steel were also the among the laggards. Nestle, ICICI Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Tech were among the gainers.
'Regardless of whether you invest Rs 100 or Rs 1 crore per month, risk is inevitable.' 'Positive returns at the end of the year can never be guaranteed.' 'This is a fundamental truth every SIP investor must grasp.'
Following the lacklustre growth numbers in the second quarter (Q2FY25), economists believe the upcoming Union Budget for 2025-26 should focus on reforms that will stimulate consumption, manufacturing and spur employment. India's growth unexpectedly slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter, due to low capital formation, weak consumption, besides adverse weather impact.
'The intensity and frequency of heatwaves will be much higher than in previous years over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.'
India is among the three least-favoured Asian stock markets, according to BofA Securities whose survey found that 10 per cent of fund managers are underweight on Indian equities from a 12-month perspective.
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) expects a USD 10.3 billion revenue boost from increased oil and gas production, achieved through a partnership with UK's BP in the Mumbai High field.
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
PVR-Inox is in an inherently fickle business. If there is a string of flops, the box office collections will be weak. Conversely, Q2FY24, which witnessed several hits, has brought about an upside in revenues. However, the merger has led to market share gains and synergies that helped bring breakeven down to approximately 20 per cent occupancy.
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
The World Bank on Tuesday raised the growth forecast for the Indian economy to 7 per cent for the current fiscal year on the back of recovery in agri sector and rural demand. World Bank had in June projected India to grow at 6.6 per cent for FY24. According to the World Bank Report released on Tuesday, India's growth continues to be strong despite a challenging global environment.
New rules, new captains, but same excitement as two months of cricket extravaganza kicks off in Kolkata.
The sharp pullback in mid and smallcap stocks signals a cooling-off period in segments that previously attracted considerable investor interest.
The stocks are largely from sectors such as chemicals, finance and cement, which struggled earlier but the worse seems to be behind them.
Tata Elxsi (TelX) reported a weak Q3FY25, with a sharp deceleration in the transportation vertical. However, recent deals in the Asia-Pacific (APAC), higher mix of original equipment makers (OEMs) and partnership with Qualcomm will improve growth. FY25 is the third successive financial year of revenue growth deceleration and second successive financial year of profit deceleration.
Oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has surprised the street with a better than expected performance in its oil-to-chemicals (O2C) division in October-December 2024 (Q3FY25). RIL executives attributed it to favourable feedstock sourcing and higher volumes. However, they also listed cost optimisation and other measures.
Overall, volume growth is likely to be in the range of 3-8 per cent for two-wheelers and 5-7 per cent for passenger vehicles owing to healthy demand from urban and rural areas and pending order books.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
The Indian economy is on the path of a durable recovery on the back of conducive monetary and credit conditions, the global headwinds notwithstanding, said a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) article on the state of the economy. Domestically, there have been several positives on the COVID-19 front, in terms of reduced infections and faster vaccinations, the article published in the RBI Bulletin November 2021 added. The Indian economy, the article said, is clearly differentiating itself from the global situation, which is marred by supply disruptions, stubborn inflation and surges of infections in various parts of the world.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
Invest in these funds through the SIP route with at least a seven-year horizon.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, UltraTech Cement, JSW Steel, Adani Ports, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Tata Steel and Reliance Industries were the biggest gainers. NTPC, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Morgan Stanley entered India in 1989 through an offshore fund --The India Magnum Fund. Ridham Desai, managing director and co-head (equity), has been with the firm since 1997. In an interview with Vandana, he speaks about the recent spike in the Indian stock market and the global recovery.
Guardiola said the expanded Club World Cup would make it even more difficult for clubs to manage player workload.
Even though Bharat Forge's performance in the July-September quarter broadly met Street estimates and defence orders are on the rise, the subdued outlook for its global business has prompted some brokerages to adopt a cautious stance on the company. Analysts have reduced the company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates to account for the slow recovery of its overseas subsidiaries. Valuations are also trading at long-term averages, which could limit potential upsides.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
The number of cyberfraud cases has skyrocketed from 2,677 in 1999-2000 to 29,082 in FY24 -- more than a 10-fold increase. The RBI pegs digital payment frauds at Rs 1,457 crore in FY24, up more than five times in a year. It's not just the number of frauds. What's alarming is the growing sophistication of the fraudsters, exposing the vulnerabilities within the financial system, observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Stock market investors became richer by a whopping Rs 77.66 lakh crore in 2024, helped by an overall optimistic trend in equities, where the BSE Sensex surged over 8 per cent. Analysts said the year witnessed a tug of war between the bulls and bears marked by volatility but, despite the uncertainties around the world, the Indian markets sustained the pressure and delivered impressive returns.
The rupee tumbled 3 per cent against the US dollar in 2024 as concerns over slower economic growth and a stronger greenback in global markets weighed, but it was among the least volatile currencies in the world and the headwinds may be less intense in the coming year.
Challenging the decision of the Biden Administration to investigate the activities of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and his companies, an influential Republican lawmaker on Tuesday said such selective actions risk damaging critical alliance partners.
The Street will thus keep an eye on the operating profit margins over the next couple of quarters.
Analysts are warning of growing risks to the market's sustained momentum, and even to the possibility of consolidation at current levels. Domestically, markets are grappling with several challenges, including a slowing economy, as indicated by the latest GDP data for the July-September (Q2) quarter of 2024-25 (FY25), sticky inflation, fluctuations in the rupee, waning consumption, and high interest rates.
